For the curious. The questioning. The splendidly unfinished. WELCOME, SNAKE PERSON.
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Scientific FactsA positive result needs context
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A positive result needs context

Page 31

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VISUAL EXAMINATION / LESSON OPENING

A positive result needs context

The question is retained before an explanation is adopted.

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Invented arithmetic: 9 true positives and 99 false positives among 1,000 stones.

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OBSERVATION TO BE CONSIDERED

A rare target can produce fewer true positives than false positives, even when a test appears impressive.

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QUESTION TO BE CARRIED FORWARD

What is the target frequency? What are the sensitivity and false-positive rate? What follows when all three are considered together?

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The exciting stone is not the entire sample.

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108 positive tests: 9 contain gold; 99 do not

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