Scientific examinations
A positive result needs context
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VISUAL EXAMINATION / LESSON OPENING
A positive result needs context
The question is retained before an explanation is adopted.
Passage actions
Invented arithmetic: 9 true positives and 99 false positives among 1,000 stones.
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OBSERVATION TO BE CONSIDERED
A rare target can produce fewer true positives than false positives, even when a test appears impressive.
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QUESTION TO BE CARRIED FORWARD
What is the target frequency? What are the sensitivity and false-positive rate? What follows when all three are considered together?
Passage actions
The exciting stone is not the entire sample.
Passage actions
108 positive tests: 9 contain gold; 99 do not
